SME confidence has fallen heading into EOFY as rising costs, Payday Super changes and the surcharging ban put pressure on cash flow. Here's what small businesses can do next.
At a glance
- SME confidence in staying cashflow positive has fallen to 60%, down from 70% in February, with only 24% feeling very confident
- Nearly half (46%) of SMEs have raised prices over the past three months to offset rising costs
- Payday super awareness has improved, but readiness is going backwards, with nearly four in ten SMEs heading into 1 July unprepared
- Over half (54%) of card-accepting SMEs expect the upcoming surcharging ban to affect how they set prices
- Half (49%) of SMEs are now using AI tools, but sole traders are being left
Australian small businesses are still moving forward. However, the latest Prospa SME Sentiment Report, based on YouGov research conducted in May 2026, shows confidence is easing as rising costs, regulatory changes and new compliance obligations mount.
Three in five (60%) SMEs say they’re confident they can remain cashflow positive over the next 12 months. That sounds reasonable until you compare it with February, when the figure was 70%. Only a quarter (24%) now feel very confident, down from 32%.
At the same time, one in six (16%) now say they’re not confident at all, up from 11% in February. That’s a significant shift in just three months.
So what’s driving it? Three things stand out.
Costs keep climbing and margins are getting squeezed
Nearly half (46%) of SMEs have increased their prices over the past three months to offset rising input costs and inflation. Most of those increases have been slight (33%), but one in ten (11%) say they’ve had to increase prices moderately, and 2% have made significant increases.
Among those who’ve raised prices, the most common approach has been to increase the cost of core products or services (69%), followed by adding or increasing surcharges (27%) and reducing or removing discounts (25%).
Cashflow buffers remain thin. On average, SMEs have around 2.6 months’ worth of cash reserves. One in seven (14%) have no reserves at all, and sole traders are twice as likely as non-sole traders to be in that position (18% compared to 9%).
Picture this: You operate a small landscaping business. Fuel expenses have increased, supplier prices have risen, and you’ve already increased your rates earlier this year. Customers are beginning to push back. You have around two months of cash reserves and are approaching a quieter winter season. The margin for error is narrow.
How to get ahead
- Know your numbers. If you haven’t reviewed your pricing in the last 90 days, consider looking at it now. Small, regular adjustments are easier for customers to absorb than one big hit.
- Build a buffer. Even putting aside a small amount each week can help. The average SME has 2.6 months of reserves. If you’re below that, it’s worth making it a priority.
- Look at your overheads. Before raising prices again, check whether there are costs you can cut or renegotiate. Supplier contracts, subscriptions and service agreements are a good place to start.
For more ways to protect your margins when costs keep climbing.
Source: Prospa SME Sentiment Report (May 2026), conducted by YouGov
Payday super: awareness is up, but readiness isn’t keeping pace
From 1 July 2026, employers will be required to pay superannuation on the same day as salary or wages are paid. Awareness of this change has improved since February. Back then, 30% of SMEs were completely unaware. That’s now dropped to 25%, and 64% say they understand the requirement.
But here’s the problem: readiness is going backwards.
In February, 19% of SMEs said they weren’t prepared. By May, that number had climbed to 23%. A further 14% are unsure whether they’re ready. That means nearly four in ten SMEs are heading into the 1 July deadline either unprepared or uncertain.
The change is already having a real impact on business decisions. One in five (19%) say they’ve delayed or reduced planned investments in response, with 6% reporting significant delays.
Over half (54%) expect the change to have some impact on their business. The most common concern? Increased cashflow pressure (24%), followed by the need to update payroll systems (18%) and additional admin burden (18%).
Picture this: You run a busy cafe with five staff members. You’ve heard about Payday Super but haven’t had time to explore what it means for your payroll process. Your accountant mentioned it in passing, but you’re not sure whether your software handles it automatically. July is four weeks away.
How to get ahead
- Talk to your accountant or payroll provider now. Don’t wait until July. Ask specifically whether your system is set up to process super on payday, not quarterly.
- Model the cashflow impact. Paying super more frequently means the money leaves your account faster. Run the numbers so there are no surprises.
- Check the ATO’s resources. The ATO has guidance specifically for small businesses on how to prepare. It’s worth 20 minutes of your time.
For more ways to prepare for Payday Super.
Source: Prospa SME Sentiment Report (May 2026), conducted by YouGov
The surcharging ban is coming and most SMEs aren’t fully across it
From 1 October 2026, businesses will no longer be able to add surcharges to debit or credit card payments. Any card acceptance costs must be absorbed or built into pricing.
Among the 62% of SMEs that accept card payments via a merchant payment service, awareness is mixed. While 43% understand what the change means for their business, 23% are aware but don’t fully understand the implications, 20% have heard of it but don’t know the details, and 15% aren’t aware of it at all.
Pricing impact is front of mind. Over half (54%) of card-accepting SMEs expect the ban to affect how they set prices. Most anticipate slight increases (41%), but 13% say they’ll need to raise prices significantly. Two in five (40%) plan to absorb the cost and keep prices the same.
Non-sole traders are feeling this more acutely. Two in three (66%) expect the ban to affect their pricing, compared with 45% of sole traders.
Picture this: You own a boutique retail store. You’ve been adding a 1.5% surcharge to card payments to cover merchant fees. From October, that’s gone. On a busy Saturday, 80% of your transactions are by card. That surcharge revenue disappears overnight, and you need to decide: absorb it, raise prices, or find another way to offset the cost.
How to get ahead
- Do the maths on your merchant fees. Work out exactly how much you’re currently recovering through surcharges. That’s the gap you’ll need to fill.
- Review your payment provider. Not all merchant fees are equal. Shop around or negotiate with your current provider to bring costs down before October.
- Plan your pricing adjustment now. If you need to adjust prices, it’s better to do it gradually in the lead-up rather than making a sudden change in October.
Source: Prospa SME Sentiment Report (May 2026), conducted by YouGov
A bright spot: AI is helping SMEs manage the pressure
Despite challenges, 49% of SMEs report using or implementing AI tools in the past six months to assist with administrative tasks or forecast cash flow gaps. The most popular tools are AI assistants such as Microsoft Copilot, Google Workspace AI, or ChatGPT, used by 34%.
Among those using AI, the top tasks it’s helping with are automating emails, documents or routine admin (40%), scheduling and task management (35%), and managing customer enquiries (30%).
But the benefits aren’t being felt evenly. Sole traders are significantly less likely to be using AI (40%) compared to non-sole traders (62%). The same gap shows up by industry: 66% of those in professional services are using AI tools, compared to just 39% in building and trade.
If you haven’t tried AI tools yet, now is the perfect time. Even basic automation, such as setting reminders or creating email drafts, can save you hours weekly, giving you more time to focus on managing and growing your business.
The bottom line
The May data reveals that SMEs are continuing their operations, but their margin for error is diminishing. Confidence has decreased, costs remain high, and two significant regulatory updates are occurring back-to-back.
Beau Bertoli, Co-Founder and Chief Revenue Officer at Prospa, states: “Those who plan ahead, manage their cash flow effectively, and seek the right support will be best prepared for the upcoming financial year.”
If you need additional cash flow to navigate these changes, a Prospa Line of Credit provides flexible funds whenever necessary, helping your business stay on track.
Disclaimer: This is general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you before acting on it and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice tailored to your circumstances. All loan applications are subject to Prospa’s credit assessment and lending criteria. Fees, terms and conditions apply.
Methodology: All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov. Total sample size was 500 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 30 April and 14 May 2026. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Australian business owners and primary decision makers of businesses with fewer than 50 employees (aged 18+).