The end of the year brings a familiar challenge for small business owners: while you’re trying to keep things running, your suppliers are winding down. Some close for a couple of weeks. Others slow to a trickle. And if you haven’t planned for it, you can find yourself short on stock, waiting on materials, or carrying more inventory than you need into the new year.

Whether you’re gearing up for a holiday rush or winding down for a quieter period, getting your stock and supplier arrangements sorted now can save you a lot of headaches later. Here’s what to think through.

Review your current inventory and expected demand

Start by taking a good look at what you’ve got and what you’re likely to need. If you run a retail store, which products do you expect to sell well over the festive period? If you’re a builder, which materials will you need for jobs booked in before and after the break?

The goal is to match what you have on hand with what you expect to sell or use. If you’re expecting a rush, you want to make sure you’ve got enough to get through without running out mid-peak. If you’re expecting things to slow down, you want to avoid ending up with shelves full of stock you won’t sell until months later.

A café might review their supply of festive season ingredients – mince pies, ham, sparkling drinks – and make sure they’ve ordered enough to cover the period when their supplier is closed. A landscaping business might check their fuel and materials supply to ensure they can finish jobs before the break without over-ordering.

If you are ordering from overseas suppliers, the earlier the better.

Identify key products, materials and supplies that may run low

Once you’ve reviewed your inventory, pinpoint the items that are most critical to your business – the ones you can’t operate without. These are the things where running out would directly cost you sales or delay jobs.

A florist might identify their core flowers and foliage as the items most at risk of running low during a busy wedding season. A printing business might flag specific paper stocks and ink that take longer to reorder. Whatever your business, there will be a handful of key items where a shortage would cause the most disruption.

For each of these, ask: how much do I have now? How long will that last? How quickly can I get more? If the answer to the last question is “not quickly enough,” that’s your signal to order ahead.

Check supplier ordering and shutdown dates

This is one of the most important – and most overlooked – steps. Many suppliers have specific cutoff dates for orders before the holidays, and if you miss them, you could be waiting weeks for your next delivery.

Reach out to your key suppliers now and ask: when is the last order date before the holiday shutdown? When will deliveries resume in the new year? Are there any products that might be in short supply?

A restaurant might find that their fresh produce supplier closes for two weeks over Christmas, meaning they need to order enough to cover that period or arrange an alternative. A hardware store might learn that a key manufacturer has an earlier cutoff than expected, and they need to place their order this week rather than next.

Write these dates down and work backwards. If the last order date is 15 December, you need to know your requirements by early December at the latest.

Factor in lead times and availability

Even if your supplier is open, lead times can blow out at this time of year. Everyone is ordering at once, freight is busier, and some products may be in short supply. Build a buffer into your timing.

If a product normally takes a week to arrive, assume it might take two during the holiday season. If you’re ordering something custom or imported, the delay could be even longer. A furniture maker might find that their timber supplier’s lead time doubles in December, so ordering early is essential to keep the workshop running.

It’s also worth checking whether your suppliers have alternative products you could use if your first choice is unavailable. Having a backup option means you’re not stuck if something runs out.

Avoid unnecessary over-ordering where demand is uncertain

While it’s smart to order ahead for items you know you’ll need, be careful about over-ordering when demand is uncertain. Tying up cash in stock that sits idle over the break can put pressure on your cash flow – especially if you’re also facing regular costs like rent, wages and bills in January.

A clothing retailer might be tempted to order heavily for a festive range, but if they’re unsure how it’ll sell, it could be smarter to order conservatively and reorder after the break if needed. A catering business might hold off on bulk ordering perishable ingredients until they have confirmed bookings.

The key is balance. Order enough to cover your expected demand and your supplier’s shutdown period, but not so much that you’re left with excess stock you can’t shift.

Use an EOY stocktake to inform next year’s purchasing

An end-of-year stocktake isn’t just about counting what you’ve got, it’s a chance to learn from the year that’s been. What sold well? What didn’t? Where did you run out? Where did you over-order?

A bottle shop might look at their festive season sales from last year and realise they over-ordered a particular wine that didn’t move, while under-ordering a local beer that sold out in days. A building supply business might notice that certain materials consistently run low in November and adjust their ordering schedule for next year.

Use these insights to plan your purchasing for the new year. The patterns you spot now can help you order smarter, reduce waste, and keep your cash working harder for your business.

Get sorted before the break

You don’t need to do everything at once, but the earlier you start, the more options you’ll have. Review your stock, check your supplier dates, and place your orders with time to spare.